diff --git a/2026-04-05-grid-shutdown-analysis.md b/2026-04-05-grid-shutdown-analysis.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5457228 --- /dev/null +++ b/2026-04-05-grid-shutdown-analysis.md @@ -0,0 +1,100 @@ +# Session: 2026-04-05 - Trading Log Analysis & Grid EA Shutdown Decision + +## Participants +- **User**: Garfield (garfield@fetcherpay.com) +- **AI**: opencode + +## Session Overview +Analyzed MT5 trading logs from March-April 2026 to understand why Confluence EA stopped trading. Discovered shared drawdown issue between both EAs. + +--- + +## 1. Log Analysis Findings + +### Grid EA Issues (OrdersEA_Smart_Grid) +- Placed **dozens of grid orders per hour** on multiple pairs +- March 31: Grid after grid placed and filled (6-10 buy + 6-10 sell stops per cycle) +- When market moved against position, all levels filled → cascading losses +- **Root cause of ~$60K loss**: Earlier in March (Mar 24-30) with clustering bug + +### Confluence EA Status +- Continuously **blocked by low signal strength** (0.00 < 0.70-0.85) +- **Volatility filters working** (ATR too low: 0.13-0.20% < 0.30%) +- Filters working as designed - market was choppy/ranging +- No drawdown protection triggered in recent logs + +### Grid Clustering Fix (Already Applied April 1) +- Logs show "too close to price. Skipping" (fix working) +- Pre-April 1 logs showed old "Adjusting" behavior + +--- + +## 2. Equity Timeline from Logs + +| Date | Time | Equity | Event | +|------|------|--------|-------| +| Mar 31 | 08:34 | $107,036 | Daily reset | +| Apr 1 | 15:11 | $106,952 | Declining | +| Apr 1 | 17:00 | $106,896 | End of day | +| Apr 2 | 17:00 | $107,084 | New day reset | + +--- + +## 3. Critical Discovery: Shared Drawdown + +**Issue**: Both EAs share the same 3% daily drawdown limit. + +From `2026-03-31-confluence-settings-update.md`: +- Both EAs check `AccountInfoDouble(ACCOUNT_EQUITY)` +- Position counting IS correct (filters by symbol + magic) +- **Implication**: If Grid EA loses 2%, Confluence only has 1% remaining + +**Code Location**: +- `MultiSignal_Confluence_EA.mq5` lines 648-689 +- `OrdersEA_Smart_Grid.mq5` - similar daily drawdown logic + +--- + +## 4. Decision: Shutdown Grid EA + +**User Action**: Shut down Grid EA for the week to test if it's hogging equity. + +**Reasoning**: +- Grid EA consuming daily drawdown budget +- Confluence EA blocked despite good signal filters +- Separating the two might allow Confluence to trade + +**Steps**: +1. Disable/remove Grid EA from all charts +2. Restart Confluence EA to clear daily equity tracking +3. Monitor for Confluence trades over next few days + +--- + +## 5. What to Watch After Grid Shutdown + +1. **Confluence should have full 3% daily budget** - more room to trade +2. **If still no trades**: + - Still-ranging market (low ATR/ADX) + - Signals below minimum strength (0.70-0.90) + - Need MT5 restart to reset drawdown tracking +3. **If trades resume** - Grid was hogging equity + +--- + +## 6. Current Status (April 5, 2026) + +- **Grid EA**: Being disabled this week +- **Confluence EA**: Running, awaiting trading opportunity +- **Market conditions**: Low volatility/ranging (ATR filters blocking) +- **Account**: ~$47% equity (still recovering) + +--- + +## Session Status: IN PROGRESS + +Monitoring Confluence EA behavior without Grid EA competition. + +--- + +*Session recorded: 2026-04-05*